Methodology

How we underwrite padel facilities.

Every Feera Courts engagement follows the same analytical framework. Demand first, then unit economics, then stress testing. If the numbers do not survive our worst case, we advise against the project.

Step 1

Demand modeling.

Data sources

We do not guess at demand. We model it from four independent data streams, then triangulate.

Feera app data

Active player counts, booking frequency, court utilization at nearby facilities, and waitlist depth from the Feera platform.

Census demographics

Population density, household income distribution, age cohort mix, and population growth projections within a 20-minute drive radius.

Racquet sport participation

Tennis, pickleball, and squash participation rates from Sports and Fitness Industry Association (SFIA) data. Padel converts from adjacent racquet sports at 15-25% rates in mature markets.

Existing facility utilization

Peak-hour saturation at nearby padel, tennis, and pickleball venues. If existing courts run above 80% utilization at peak, the market signals unmet demand.

Output: per-site demand forecast

The demand model produces a 5-year booking forecast at the per-court, per-hour level. It answers one question: how many hours per week will each court be booked, and at what price?

We segment demand into four revenue streams: open play (drop-in bookings), memberships (recurring monthly), coaching and programming (lessons, clinics, camps), and events (tournaments, corporate, private). Each stream has its own price point and utilization profile.

The model is conservative by design. We do not assume viral growth. We assume gradual adoption following a standard S-curve with local market adjustments.

Step 2

Utilization underwriting.

We apply a standard ramp curve to every project. No project is underwritten at stabilized utilization from day one.

Year 1

40%

Ramp period. Marketing-heavy. Membership build.

Year 2

60%

Word of mouth. League formation. Repeat bookings.

Year 3

70%

Stabilized. Peak hours saturated. Off-peak growing.

Utilization is measured as a percentage of available peak hours (typically 14 hours per day, 7 days per week). A 70% stabilized rate means approximately 69 booked hours per court per week. Off-peak hours (early morning, late evening) are modeled separately at lower price points and lower fill rates.

Step 3

Cost modeling.

We work from a per-court all-in cost stack. This number is the foundation of every pro forma we build.

Court hardware (FIP-spec, installed)$140,000
Site fit-out (foundation, drainage, lighting, turf)$75,000
All-in per court$215,000

What is included

Court structure (glass, steel, mesh), FIP-spec turf and sand infill, LED lighting to 500 lux, concrete foundation with drainage, installation labor, and project management. This figure reflects mid-range European or North American supply at 2026 pricing.

What is excluded

Land acquisition or lease deposits, building shell (for indoor facilities), clubhouse and amenity fit-out, technology stack, working capital, and pre-opening marketing. These are modeled separately and vary significantly by project.

We benchmark every project against our cost database of completed North American padel installations. If a supplier quote deviates more than 15% from benchmark, we investigate before proceeding.

Step 4

The Sweden Stress Test.

In 2023 and 2024, Sweden overbuilt padel capacity. Roughly 30% of facilities went under. The operators who failed shared common traits: optimistic utilization assumptions, no buffer for energy cost spikes, and no plan for seasonal vacancy. We apply those failure conditions to every project we evaluate.

ParameterBase caseStress case
Electricity price1.0x2.5x base case
Utilization rate70% (Year 3)35% (half of stabilized)
Vacancy window0 days90 consecutive days

The rule is simple.

We run every project through all three stress conditions simultaneously. If the project cannot service its debt and cover operating costs under these conditions, we do not advise on it. This is not negotiable. We would rather lose the engagement than see an operator lose their investment.

Step 5

Operating playbook.

A feasibility study without an operating plan is incomplete. Every Feera Courts engagement includes a standard operating playbook covering staffing, technology, and the critical first 90 days.

Standard staffing model (4-court facility)

General ManagerFull-time. Operations, P&L, member relations.
1.0 FTE
Front desk / receptionShift coverage. Booking support, walk-ins.
2.0 FTE
MaintenancePart-time. Court care, turf grooming, glass inspection.
0.5 FTE
Head coachProgramming, group lessons, private coaching.
1.0 FTE
Assistant coachesJunior programs, clinics, peak-hour coverage.
1.0 FTE
Marketing / communitySocial, events, league coordination, partnerships.
1.0 FTE
Total headcount6.5 FTE

Booking platform recommendation

Every Feera Courts project includes the Feera booking platform at no additional license cost. The platform handles court reservations, membership management, player matching, league scheduling, and payment processing. For operators who prefer third-party platforms, we also evaluate Playtomic, MATCHi, and PlayByPoint based on market fit.

90-day marketing playbook

The first 90 days determine whether a facility reaches its Year 1 utilization target. Our playbook covers: pre-opening waitlist building (email, social, local partnerships), opening week programming (free clinics, media events, influencer sessions), month-one membership drives (founding member pricing, referral incentives), and months two and three league formation (recreational, intermediate, competitive brackets).

Ready to start?

Let the numbers lead.

Book a free consultation. We will run a preliminary demand model for your market and tell you honestly whether the project pencils.